Wednesday, September 10, 2008

"TEOTWAWKI" Scenario 2

OK, I have discussed the possibility of a terrorist attack, it's potential outcomes and my family's reaction to it. My personal thought is that a terrorist attack in my area is a remote possibility. So, what does that mean as far as preparations? Should we just cross it off our list and move on to something else? Nope, no chance. Part of our personal survival mantra is "Be prepared for anything, have a plan for everything".
Let's take a look at something now that I believe has a much greater chance of occurring and a much greater direct impact on my family.
2. Social Upheaval
What the heck is this, and why am I worried about it? Social upheaval is the reaction of society to a devastating situation. The trigger could be economic (food shortage, gas shortage), environmental (weather, natural disaster), political (governmental policies, civil unrest) or other (epidemic). Hurricane Katrina is a prime example of Social Upheaval happening in our lifetime. An environmental event led to economic shortages, exacerbated by governmental policies (local, state and federal) which caused civil unrest (looting, crimes, violence). If something like that occurred in my small town, it would be a life altering event for us. So, let's discuss it.
Scenario- Triggered by a nationwide event, society temporarily breaks down and Social Upheaval occurs. Rioting and looting occur and the Federal Government declares martial law in effected areas. Due to large scale of event, not enough law enforcement/military personnell are available to keep order.
Possible Outcomes- Rioting, Looting, Crime, Heavy Traffic, Interruption of basic services (water, gas, electricity), Food hoarding, Heavy Federal presence/military quarantine of areas.
Personal Approach: This is a difficult choice.
Bugging out means uprooting the entire family and walking away from a considerable monetary investment (house). However, the safety of my family comes first, so chances are good that we would leave. First step would be to gather the family in one place and asess the situation. When can/should we leave? Do we have time to pack any extra items, or do we need to grab our Bug Out Bags and hit the road?
That decision would need to be made at the time, and our plan allows for this flexibility.
I will discuss BOB contents in another post, but food, clothing, medical supplies and personal water are a must. The BOV (Bug Out Vehicle) would have to be loaded with the extra food, fuel and water that we keep on hand. I have not put a watch to this, but with everything centralized I think we can have it done in half an hour. Weapons and ammo are loaded just prior to people, and we are underway!
I have 3 different "Fall Back" locations planned. They are ranked in order of distance, closest first. When the time comes to move out, we will evaluate each one in order, considering relative safety, availability of additional supplies and distance. The plan is to avoid major roads, sticking to those less travelled. This avoids 2 major, potential obstacles.
First being other "refugees", who may only be an impedance, but could also pose a threat. If you are someone who looks like you are well equipped and supplied, you may become a target for someone who is less prepared. Desperate times can create desperate situations. The point of Bugging Out is not to head down the highway "Mad Max" style, blowing up the bad guys and shooting out the windows, but rather to keep a low profile and get to a safe destination.
The second obstacle to be avoided is the government itself. This includes, local law enforcement, National Guard, state and federal law enforcement and the US military. Not that I am saying the government is the enemy, however, in a disaster situation, their plan for me might not match my personal plan. And although I consider myself a good American, I am going to choose my family's safety over what might work best for Uncle Sam.
Items of Use: Truck SUV or Station Wagon, fuel, extra fuel cans, siphon, funnel and hose, spare tires, jack, tools, spare air (tire inflator in a can), maps, GPS, compass, extra water and food, blankets and a tarp (for sleeping and hiding truck). games and book for the kids, and a good plan!
The plan for this scenario is to move safely to an area unaffected by the turmoil, where we have friends or family we can use for support. When things normalize, we can look into coming home, assessing the damage and starting our lives up again. To make sure this is possible, we have all our documents in a portable fire safe, ready to go next to the weapons rack, and a back up of all documents on a USB drive...well, where it is, that my business. I have no illusions of living off the land for the rest of my life and starting a new society somewhere in the woods. I want to be able to come back when it is over and try to start my life up again.

1 comment:

TangoMike said...


Your approach is so refreshing to me after having digested 8 months of some of the other sites promoting hardened retreats and plans to become the last remaining humans on earth. My evac plan mirrors the one you have, as my survival group includes myself, my wife, my 9 year old daughter and my 3 year old daughter. Even though I'm a former US Marine Deputy Sheriff I just don't see us being able to fend off the entire planet gone mad. I'm better off putting the bulk of my efforts into prepping for the most likely scenarios such as civil unrest, terrorism and weather related events. These things will then naturally lend themselves to some TEOTWAWKI preps. Thanks for the great blog.